Drawing on penalties is bad for football
15 March, 2007
Update
The BBC have now pointed out that if games end in a draw, the winner of the shootout would get 2 points, and the loser one point. So that changes things somewhat… But the main points of what I wrote still apply (see below)
Original words:
The BBC is reporting that the football league is thinking about scrapping draws. Under the new scheme, matches ending all square after 90 minutes would be decided by a penalty shootout. It’s supposed to make the leagues more competitive, but the idea is clearly ridiculous.
First of all, 3 points for a win wouldn’t mean anything, since there would only be wins and losses. If a match ends all square, let’s say the chance of either team winning the shoot out is 1/2. (It might not be, since better teams tend to have better strikers and goalkeepers). So your expected number of points if it’s all level after 90 minutes is 1/2 times 3: You get 3 points with probability 1/2 (if you win the shootout), and zero points with probability 1/2 (if you lose the shootout).
So now we’ve got 3 points for a win, and 1 and 1/2 points for a draw. Remind you of anything? Basically we’ve gone back to the old system of “A win is worth double what a draw is worth” – or 2 points for a win.
The one thing the system would achieve is making the league look more competitive. That’s becuase instead of a guaranteed point for a draw, some teams would win lots of shootouts, and other teams would lose lots. But the competitiveness is only skin deep. The league isn’t really more competitive, it just looks like it because you’ve thrown a lot of chance into the points system.
And look at the Championship, League 1 and League 2 tables: They’re already pretty competitive, for pity’s sake. It’s the Premiership that needs sorting out, not these lower leagues. There’s much more to say on this, and hopefully the subject will be mentioned in the Fink Tank soon.
